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Some Good News
Kathleen Stephansen, Independent Economist, New York, USAUS recovery support
A more sanguine US economic outlook emerged as 2020 drew to a close, thanks to the December fiscal relief package and progress on the COVID-vaccine. They set the stage for a 'work-spend' recovery to gradually take hold.
Consumer spending represents 70% of GDP. Its recovery is therefore key for the overall economic recovery and depends on the rebound of jobs and confidence.
Spending posted wide gyrations last year, falling by 7% (SAAR) in Q1 2020 and by 33% in Q2. It rebounded by 41% in Q3, though in November was still 3% below its January 2020 level.
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